Equity Research
CAMECO (CCJ) — Equity Research
TSX: CCO | NYSE: CCJ | Sector: Energy — Uranium | April 2026
▲ BUY
Target: US$140
Current: US$115.90
Upside: +21%
Market Cap
$50.5B
USD
Enterprise Value
$50.3B
USD (CAD $69.9B)
FY2025A Revenue
$3,482M
CAD
FY2025A Adj EBITDA
$1,929M
CAD
EBITDA Margin
55.4%
FY2025A
Div Yield
0.21%
Annual
52-Wk Range
$36.01–$135.24
USD
FCF (FY2025A)
$850M
CAD
Section 02
Variant Perception
| Consensus View | Our Variant View |
|---|---|
| "Uranium is cyclical" | ▶ Supply response structurally impaired: 7–10 yr mine timelines, ISR incremental, secondary depleting. Regime change, not cycle. |
| "Premium fully prices renaissance" | ▶ Market underestimates repricing torque: ~230M lbs resetting from $40–50 to $80–120/lb. 3–5 yrs of margin expansion ahead. |
| "Westinghouse is diversification" | ▶ Westinghouse is growth optionality: AP300 SMR, Dukovany-style royalties, VVER fuel replacement = 6–10% EBITDA CAGR. |
| "Current price implies modest growth" | ▶ Reverse-DCF: $115.90 implies ~12% EBITDA CAGR. We model 18% from repricing alone — before hyperscaler optionality. |
Section 03
Investment Thesis — Three Pillars
Structural Supply Deficit
- Demand 2025E: ~179M lbs → 2030E: ~229M lbs → 2035E: ~300M lbs
- Supply 2025E: ~167M lbs (persistent deficit)
- 438 operating reactors, 79 under construction
- New mines need 7–10 years and $70–90+/lb incentive pricing
Contract Repricing Runway
- ~230M lbs under long-term contracts
- Legacy contracts at $40–50/lb rolling to $80–120/lb
- FY2025A realized: US$57/lb → FY2030E target: ~$112/lb
- 3–5 year visible margin expansion runway
Westinghouse Services Revenue
- 49% stake, services ~50% of global reactor fleet
- High-margin recurring revenue
- AP300 SMR, VVER fuel replacement, Dukovany contracts
- BWXT comparable trades at 39x EV/EBITDA
Section 04
Uranium Supply-Demand Balance (M lbs U₃O₈)
Demand Drivers
| Driver | Current | 2030E | Incremental Demand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Reactors | 438 (396 GWe) | ~460 | +10–15M lbs/yr |
| Under Construction | 79 (82 GWe) | Commissioning | +25–30M lbs/yr |
| Life Extensions | ~80 approved/pending | Ongoing | +5–10M lbs/yr |
| SMRs | Demonstration | First units | +2–5M lbs/yr |
| Hyperscaler PPAs | ~13.9 GW committed | Staged ramp | +6–10M lbs/yr |
Section 05
Contract Repricing Waterfall: Blended Realized Price (US$/lb)
Section 06
Financial Model
Financial Overview
| Metric | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (CAD $M) | 2,588 | 2,920 | 3,482 | 3,234 | 4,093 |
| Adj EBITDA (CAD $M) | 1,012 | 1,350 | 1,929 | 1,429 | 1,794 |
| EBITDA Margin | 39.1% | 46.2% | 55.4% | 44.2% | 43.8% |
| Net Income (CAD $M) | 378 | 580 | 920 | 640 | 850 |
| Diluted EPS (CAD) | $0.87 | $1.33 | $2.11 | $1.47 | $1.95 |
| CapEx (CAD $M) | 420 | 480 | 510 | 530 | 560 |
| FCF (CAD $M) | 320 | 540 | 850 | 850 | 1,050 |
Adj EBITDA (CAD $M)
Segment EBITDA Breakdown (CAD $M)
EBITDA Bridge: FY2025A → FY2027E (CAD $M)
Section 07
Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Key Assumptions | EV/EBITDA | EBITDA | Target US$ | vs Current | Prob | Wtd $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Bear | U₃O₈ $60/lb; surplus | 20x | FY26E $1,429M | $47 | -59% | 5% | $2.35 |
| Bear | U₃O₈ $70/lb; repricing slows | 30x | FY26E $1,429M | $71 | -39% | 15% | $10.65 |
| Base | U₃O₈ $90–100/lb; repricing continues | 42x | FY27E $1,794M | $140 | +21% | 50% | $70.00 |
| Base+ | U₃O₈ $110/lb; accelerated | 45x | FY27E $1,900M | $160 | +38% | 20% | $32.00 |
| Bull | U₃O₈ $130+/lb; hyperscaler accel | 48x | FY27E $2,050M | $194 | +67% | 10% | $19.40 |
| Expected Value | $134.40 | +16% | 100% | $134.40 |
Scenario Price Targets vs Current (US$115.90)
Section 08
Valuation
Enhanced Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP)
| Component | Metric | Multiple/Method | EV (CAD $M) | USD equiv ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uranium Mining EBITDA | FY2027E $975M | 20x | 19,500 | 14,040 |
| Reserve NAV | 360M lbs × $20/lb | In-ground | 7,200 | 5,184 |
| Fuel Services EBITDA | FY2027E $215M | 14x | 3,010 | 2,167 |
| Westinghouse (49%) | FY2027E $611M | 20x (BWXT: 39x) | 12,220 | 8,798 |
| Contract Repricing NPV | Incremental CFs | 10% disc, 5.7x cap | 8,500 | 6,120 |
| Corporate overhead | — | — | (2,000) | (1,440) |
| TOTAL EV | 48,430 | 34,870 | ||
| + Net Cash | 192 | 138 | ||
| Equity Value | 48,622 | 35,008 | ||
| Per Share (435.6M) | CAD $111.64 | US$80.38 |
EV/EBITDA Peer Comparison
Valuation Summary
| Method | Implied Value (US$) | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Enhanced SOTP | $80 | $65–90 |
| Multi-Stage DCF | $47 | $38–58 |
| Reverse-DCF | $116 (market) | — |
| EV/EBITDA (Base) | $140 | $119–160 |
| Prob-Weighted | $134 | $47–194 |
Valuation Range ("Football Field")
Section 09
Risk Matrix
Section 10
Catalyst Timeline
Apr 2026
Q1 2026 Earnings — Confirms FY2026 trajectory
Certain
Summer 2026
Arrow construction begins — De-risks supply narrative
90% High
2026–2027
DOE reserve purchases — Supports spot price floor
80% High
2027–2028
AP300 NRC certification — Unlocks SMR market
50% Medium
2028
TMI Unit 1 restart — Validates restart economics
60% Medium
2028–2030
Legacy repricing peak — 18% EBITDA CAGR
85% High
~2030
Arrow first production — 20% supply addition
55% Medium
2030–2035
Hyperscaler fleet operational — 5–8% demand increment
45% Medium